As a native of Asheville I think I have a somewhat unique view of the real estate market here. I’ve seen areas of town that were once considered to be less than desirable become the new hot sections to be in. This year I have watched the real estate market here spit and sputter along and I’ve been watching keenly because I can’t have a conversation with anyone before they ask me what I think the market is going to do. The short answer is – “I have no idea.” It’s the honest answer too. However, by looking at the sales patterns of years past I can make some educated guesses.
from 2000-2005 this market averaged about 200-250 homes sold per month. Beginning in 2006 and through the 2007 market it jumped to over 300, sometimes reaching as high as 400 homes sold. For the past 18 months we have been limping along at 130-170 homes sold per month.
In December that number was 154, and I think January will be lower (140-145). However, you also want to look at the number of new homes coming on to the market. that number has fallen considerably and as it falls more there will inevitably be a return to a healthier market. (For a better look at this go to my blog and access the “Ten Year Graph” to look at the sales and inventory numbers for the past ten years. Then you will begin to appreciate the work that is ahead).
This past year is one that has been hard to gauge but I do believe that 2010 will be a stronger year. However, look for the market to return to 2002-2003 levels and stabilize. The gold rush is over for a while.
Jason is the managing broker for The Buyer’s Agent of Asheville and the author of the viewashevillehomes blog. You can reach Jason at (828)242-7616 or firstname.lastname@example.org if you have questions about the real estate market in Asheville, NC